Six wins. Zero losses. The Super Bowl market still has the Vikings parked at 4%, tied for 11th in the league.
That number has barely moved. Minnesota opened the season with just a 2% shot at even being the last unbeaten team left, and going 6-0 bumped them up to… 4%.
Blame the offense. Kyler Murray ranks 27th of 34 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play, with three touchdown passes through six games. Three.
Minnesota’s offense ranks 31st in EPA per play and has put up the second-fewest points of any 6-0 team since 1940. Next up: the Lions, Bills, Packers and 49ers, a combined 19-7. One writer wondered if this is the most fraudulent 6-0 team in NFL history. Hard to blame him.
The defense is the real answer. Brian Flores is blitzing on 71.8% of snaps, nearly 28 points higher than the next-closest team in the league, and it’s carrying an offense that would get most backups benched by Thanksgiving.
But the market’s seen this movie before. Since 2007, every team that finished the season as the league’s last unbeaten squad is 0-9 in the Super Bowl. The 2007 Patriots are on that list. They went 16-0 to get there and still lost. Denver’s 2015 Broncos won the whole thing running close to this exact split: shutdown defense, limited passer. It happens.
Flip side nobody’s pricing in: 19 of the last 20 teams to finish as the league’s last undefeated team made the playoffs. Eight reached the Super Bowl.
Fade the vibes, not the record.
